Mortgage Rate Update: Trade and Oil Prices Keep Pressure on Rates

What Did Rates Do This Week?

Mortgage rates moved higher again this week, with most major loan programs increasing between about 0.25% and 0.50%.
The biggest factors were Thursday’s U.S.-China meeting and continued movement in oil prices. Trade and tariff developments can affect inflation expectations, while higher oil prices can add to inflation pressure. Both can put pressure on the bond market and mortgage rates.
Ongoing tensions in the Middle East also remain an important factor. Oil prices have been volatile as markets weigh supply concerns against hopes for progress toward a U.S.-Iran agreement.

What to Look Forward to Next Week

Next week, investors will continue watching oil prices, trade developments, and any changes in Middle East tensions. Any major developments involving tariffs, inflation, or global oil supplies could quickly impact the bond market and mortgage rates.

Lock or Float Bias

Current Lock/Float Bias: Slight Lock

With mortgage rates moving higher and several sources of market uncertainty still in play, borrowers closing within the next 15–30 days may want to consider locking their rate. Those with longer timelines may choose to float if they can tolerate short-term movement, but should be prepared for continued volatility.